Museum on the Coast

Predictions for September 2031

In September 2031, I will be 33 and turning 34. Not only will the world be a significantly different place, but this will probably be the biggest decade of change in my life.

Personal Life

I am married - 70%

This is a little wild to think about. I don’t know the slightest thing about Long Term Relationships, so the idea that I have strong odds of having permanently committed to someone is… daunting. Regardless, I still hope I am married. Or better yet, it’d be great if I found the right person, but being single is better than rushing into it with the wrong person.

I am married, and I personally know the person I am married to at the time of writing this - 30%

I do know a good amount of people. But on the net, there’s so many people out there. And if I do know them right now, wouldn’t I be dating them already?

I am married to Zendaya - 1%

Gotta have dreams.

Zendaya, looking good
“After I read the nerdy blog post full of probabilities, I immediatley fell in love with him” - Zendaya, probably

I have kid(s) - 50%

If marriage is wild to think about, this is flat out scary to think about.

I am living in my home state - 70%

I am living in my home country - 80%

I am a millionaire - 5%

I am an educated in the field of Computer Science, the field known for startups. The only disadvantage I have here is laziness.

I am a billionaire - 1%

The real question is, what’s the conditional probability that I’m married to Zendaya given that Im a billionaire. I’m not saying she’s shallow… I’m just saying it can’t hurt.

I am obese - 10%

I am pretty skinny right now. Things would have to take a significant turn here. However, it just could be that my metabolism hasn’t caught up with me yet.

I have a PhD - 20% This sounds cocky, but I am actively interested in higher education. But PhD’s are quite difficult.

Technology

I will be driving a Tesla - 60%

A lot of people have a personal dream car, but in a weird way, that’s not even the niche Tesla fills for me. Tesla feels like another device, like a monitor or a smartphone.

Tesla Model 3
hot

I will be driving an Apple Car - 20%

My car can drive me to the closest local retailer without human intervention - 50%

My primary computing device is an iPhone - 60%

My primary computing device is made by Apple - 60%

Right now, my iPhone 12 Pro feels like my most important device in my life. But it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to wonder what comes after the iPhone.

Bitcoin <$1 - 2%

Bitcoin >$1M - 5%

In my opinion, the value of Bitcoin is a completely trustless global currency, and with the sheer resources required to 51% attack it, I don’t see it slowing down anytime soon.

A neural net is trained with more connections than the human brain (100T) - 60%

The Tesla Bot is purchasable - 40%

The Tesla Bot is going to be super difficult to implement - and the hardware is the easy part. Making software that you can easily teach tasks with notoriously fickle Machine Learning - good luck. But if Tesla succeeds, it will be the most important invention since the iPhone, maybe since the computer.

There is a Neuralink in my brain - 20%

This seems pretty high, but if you assume that the technology is feasible, one can imagine a crazy amount of benefits. Brain to brain communication. Giant boosts to mental health. Maybe even a bit of wireheading.

Politics

Donald Trump is re-elected President - 20%

I don’t know what’s scarier, the possibility I’ll have kids in 10 years, or the possibility Trump could be president again. And even worse, those possibilities are independent.

A third party candidate wins the presidency - 2%

Marijuana is federally legal (recreationally) - 60%

LSD or mushrooms are federally legal (recreationally) - 30%

If psychedelics take the same amount of time for legalization that we did, in 10 years then we’ll have nothing. But, there’s a chance that weed is a good gateway drug… for legalizing other drugs.

There are more than 50 states in the US - 20%

Despite losing the brouhaha before the election, it doesn’t look like Biden wants to spend his political capital on more states.

Science

Humans have walked on Mars - 60%

Half of all car sales are electric - 40%

There is widely accepted evidence of extraterrestrial life - 5%

There is widely accepted evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life - 1%

Entertainment

Mickey Mouse is in the Public Domain - 70%

I honestly think this could be one of the biggest things to happen in all of the 2020’s. Last time his copyright was extended, public domain was a little more than a niche issue. But now that everyone is a content creator, I see strong odds of Steamboat Willie becoming Free Willie.

Steamboat Willie
Wait, do I even have the rights to post this here?

The MCU will still be going - 70%

A movie is released that outperforms Avengers: Endgame - 50%

A series that I consider better than the current best (Mad Men) airs - 60%

Mad Men is great, but peak TV does not seem to be stopping.

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune gets a sequel - 60%

please please please please please please

Netflix’s Live Action Cowboy Bebop show has an average rating >7.5 - 50%

Spider-Man: No Way Home includes the other two live action Spider-Men - 70%

The Nintendo platform after the Nintendo Switch is released - 90%

…and so is the platform after that - 50%

Nintendo consistently releases 2 consoles per decade.

Fun

I live in Tokyo for more than 2 months at some point - 60%

I’ve only been there once, but it’s objectively my favorite city. The only issue is it’s in the most inconvenient time zone away from all of my friends and family.

Buildings in Tokyo
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I’m a cliché nerd. But at least I’m aware of it?

I write a book - 20%

I direct a film - 30%

I go skydiving - 60%

I give a speech to an audience of >1000 people - 20%

I learn a (communicative, not programming) language fluently that’s not English - 20%

I go on a multiple day long meditation retreat - 40%

I can do a backflip - 20%

Conclusion

A lot can happen in 10 years. In 10 years I could be unemployed, divorced, and an alcoholic. I could also have a PhD, billionaire, and married to Zendaya. And there’s a giant spectrum of possibilities between those two paths.

But honestly, the most impressive thing is how giant that spectrum is. There are endless paths ahead. What will be the path I actually take?